题目：Supercritical Spatial SIR Epidemics: Spreading Speed and Herd Immunity

主讲人：香港科技大学 郑星华教授

主持人：统计学院 常晋源教授

时间：2021年9月28日（周二）上午10:00-11:00

地点：腾讯会议，706 801 977

报告摘要：

We study supercritical spatial SIR epidemics on Z^2 * {1,2,…,N}, where each site in Z^2 represents a village and N stands for the village size. We establish several key asymptotic results as N to infty. In particular, we show that the epidemic spread out linearly in all directions, and derive an explicit formula for the spreading speed. Moreover, we prove that the ultimate proportion of infection converges to a number that is constant over space and find its explicit value. An important message is that if there is no vaccination, then the ultimate proportion of population who will be infected can be much higher than the vaccination proportion needed in order to prevent sustained spread of the infection. Based on joint work with Qingsan Zhu.

主讲人简介：

郑星华教授于2008年毕业于芝加哥大学。现任香港科技大学资讯、商业统计及营运学系教授。主要研究领域为金融大数据及粒子模型。多项研究成果发表于概率，统计，经济和金融领域顶级期刊。