题目：Time Series Analysis of COVID-19 Infection Curve: A Change-Point Perspective

主讲人：伊利诺伊大学香槟分校 邵晓峰教授

主持人：统计学院 常晋源教授

时间：2020年7月24日（周五）9:30-10:30

直播平台及会议ID：Zoom，921 1079 7812

报告摘要：

I will present our recent work to model the trajectory of the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 (in log scale) via a piecewise linear trend model. The model naturally captures the phase transitions of the epidemic growth rate via change-points and further enjoys great interpretability due to its semiparametric nature. On the methodological front, we advance the nascent self-normalization (SN) technique (Shao, 2010) to testing and estimation of a single change point in the linear trend of a nonstationary time series. We further combine the SN-based change-point test with the NOT algorithm (Baranowski et al., 2019) to achieve multiple change-point estimation. Using the proposed method, we analyze the trajectory of the cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths for 30 major countries and discover interesting patterns with potentially relevant implications for effectiveness of the pandemic responses by different countries. Furthermore, based on the change-point detection algorithm and a flexible extrapolation function, we design a simple two-stage forecasting scheme for COVID-19 and demonstrate its promising performance in predicting cumulative deaths in the U.S. Joint work with Feiyu Jiang and Zifeng Zhao.

主讲人简介：

Dr. Shao is Professor of Statistics and PhD program director, at the Department of Statistics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC). He received his PhD in Statistics from University of Chicago in 2006 and has been on the UIUC faculty since then. Dr. Shao's research interests include time series analysis, high-dimensional data analysis, functional data analysis, change-point analysis, resampling methods and asymptotic theory. He is an elected ASA and IMS fellow.